By Vicky Sidler | Published 7 June 2025 at 20:00 GMT

Running a small business in South Africa right now feels a bit like planning a braai in the middle of a thunderstorm. You’ve got your meat, your grid, and your guest list—but you’re never quite sure which way the wind is blowing or whether the matches will stay dry.

That’s the energy behind TymeBank’s June SME forecast, which unpacks everything from rising fuel costs to trade uncertainty with the US and BRICS—and what it all means for small businesses trying to stay afloat, never mind grow.

Here’s the good, the bad, and the “we’ll get back to you after the summit.”

Fuel, Finance, and a National Budget That’s Light on the Details:

The Reserve Bank’s small interest rate cut in May offers a glimmer of relief, and inflation is behaving—so far. But the national budget didn’t deliver much in the way of direct SME support. No new funding programs. No concrete plan to cut red tape. Not even a polite nod to entrepreneurs in the speech.

What we did get was:

• A promise to keep VAT at 15%, which is good for predictability

• A 16c per litre fuel levy hike, which is not good for your delivery van

• A vague suggestion that “removing regulatory burdens” is a goal, with zero elaboration

If you're in logistics, retail, or manufacturing, the fuel increase probably hit you harder than the interest rate cut helped. And if you were hoping for a break from paperwork, keep hoping.

The Global Stage Isn’t Making Life Easier Either:

With the AGOA Forum (potentially SA’s last as a beneficiary) happening in June and the BRICS Summit set for July, South Africa’s diplomatic balancing act is under pressure. A US administration leaning protectionist. BRICS partners pushing hard for alternatives to Western systems. And SMEs left wondering where their next opportunity—or risk—might come from.

If you’re in agriculture, automotive, or export manufacturing, this affects you directly. Many SMEs built around preferential US market access may soon have to compete under standard trade terms—or find new markets entirely.

The TymeBank forecast makes it clear: we’re entering a season where planning gets harder, and external volatility grows. But that doesn’t mean you’re powerless.

What Should SMEs Actually Do?

As a Duct Tape Marketing Strategist and StoryBrand Certified Guide, I’ll always advocate for one core principle: when the world gets noisy, double down on what you can control.

Here’s a quick plan to keep your business moving, even when policy isn’t:

1. Audit your cost messaging:

With fuel prices rising, don’t let your customers feel confused or blindsided. Be transparent about price changes. Frame them around value, not just cost.

2. Tighten your positioning:

In uncertain markets, people buy from businesses they understand and trust. Is your messaging clear enough for someone to repeat it after one read?

3. Simplify your systems:

Geopolitics might shift weekly, but your marketing system shouldn’t. Streamline how you generate leads, talk to customers, and convert sales—so your business can run even when the news cycle spins.

Want to Stay Grounded When Everything Else Feels Wobbly?

Uncertainty isn’t going anywhere. But clear, consistent marketing is still one of the most powerful tools you have. Start by fixing your message.

Download my free 5-Minute Marketing Fix—a printable one-pager that helps you write a sentence so clear, your next customer won’t need a summit to understand it.

👉 Grab it here.

And if your business still feels like that stormy braai? Just remember—it’s not about perfect weather. It’s about keeping the fire going.